Global ad spend is forecast to grow 11.9% to $1.34trn in 2026, according to the latest data from WARC Media. This comes on the back of strong 10.0% growth in 2024 and 2025.
Advertising investment continues to grow despite consumer pressure and geopolitical uncertainty, fueled by significant corporate AI investment and major events including the Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and US mid-term elections. While the economy has remained resilient to date, further escalations of global tensions pose potential downside risks.
Suzy Young, Head of WARC Media Data, says: “These are unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending. This apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly uneven economy, where growth – particularly from the AI boom – is benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others.”
Performance priority
Social media, search and retail media are three of the biggest channels for ad investment. Altogether they are expected to account for 66.4% of total global ad spend in 2026, rising to 70.0% in 2028.
Social media is set to register the strongest growth in ad spend this year, up 21.3% to $394.6bn, and is on course to exceed $500bn in 2028. Video on-demand (15.1% to $48.4bn), retail media (14.3% to $202.1bn), search (14.2% to $295.7bn) and digital OOH (13.7% to $21.7bn) will also see double-digit increases this year. Performance channels, which can adapt quickly to changing conditions, continue to benefit as uncertainty becomes the new norm.
Technology and electronics is forecast to be the fastest growing product category this year, rising 20.7% compared with 2025, followed by travel and transport (19.3%) and automotive (17.8%). Social media is expected to account for 40.2% of all tech and electronics spend in 2026.
2027 and 2028 ad spend outlook
Ad spend growth is expected to moderate in 2027, rising 8.4% to $1.46trn, reflecting tougher comparables and a normalisation from the exceptionally strong growth seen in recent years.
In 2028, ad spend will increase by a further 7.9% to $1.57trn – putting the market on course to be 2.3 times larger than it was a decade ago in 2019.
New AI destinations emerge
AI is driving advertising growth from multiple angles. New tech businesses are investing to acquire customers and build brands, while established companies spend heavily to compete in an increasingly crowded market. Simultaneously, AI tools are enhancing targeting, asset creation, and campaign optimisation – boosting ROI and fueling further investment.
AI is also opening new destinations for advertising. As generative search and AI assistants become gateways to product discovery and purchasing, ad dollars will follow – fundamentally reshaping where consumers encounter brands and where advertisers invest.
AI fuels ad triopoly
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to take a combined market share of 59.7% of global ad spend (excluding China) this year – equivalent to $659.6bn. This is predicted to rise to 61.5%, or $804.1bn, in 2028.
Ad spend signals opportunity
Ad spend per capita varies dramatically across global markets. Developed economies like the US ($1395 per capita forecast for 2026), UK ($935), Austria ($850), and Switzerland ($825) show significantly higher advertising intensity, while China ($170), Brazil ($110), and India ($13) combine lower per-capita spending with massive consumer populations – highlighting substantial growth potential as these emerging markets mature.