Every year, many economic experts, conferences, renowned bodies, and organizations spend quality time analysing and giving predictions on what to expect in the business scene of the emerging year.
Most times, these conferences take place early in the year or the last month of the previous year. These predictions are very important to many businesses that want to make guided decisions that will be cost-effective yet highly profitable.
Organisations that can afford it spend huge resources to host strategic retreats where they analyze and realign their business goals with these predictions to achieve the best possible outcome.
For those who may recall, from 2005, through 2007, the social media era was predicted and we saw how these years effectively heralded the age of social media. We have also seen that 2021 and 2022 heralded the Age of AI and now, in 2024, we have come full circle in its experience.
We have also seen companies and individuals evaluate the impact of AI on their businesses and careers, exploring the opportunities they create, with all its applications and how they can be utilized to boost the bottom line.
It is predicted that AI will change the world for at least the next 20 years before another major disruptive phenomenon emerges.
Recall that in 2020 during COVID-19, even when many predictions did not foresee the impact of the COVID rampaging COVID brought an unplanned closure to some businesses while others struggled to survive.
Today, 2024 is another year filled with hope and high expectations that things will change for the better. Already, some analysts and economic experts have projected that the country’s economy will perform better this year on the back of the recovery of the oil sector from recession and gains from the Federal Government reforms.
Here are some of the presentations on the economic outlook for this year, 2024 presented by teams of experts at different conferences
TOP TRENDS IN 2024: MEDIA, CONSUMER AND MARKETS INSIGHTS
This was a digital conference organized by MediaReach OMD, a top media independent agency, in partnership with Lagos Business School (LBS) and the National Institute of Marketing of Nigeria (NIMN).
Supported by the Advertising Regulatory Council of Nigeria (ARCON) and GeoPoll the seminar was tagged “Top Trends in 2024: Media, Consumer & Markets,” and experts assembled to unveil the trends and consumer insights that will shape the Marketing Communications industry in 2024.
The seminar featured distinguished panellists with extensive knowledge of sector and industry dynamics. These experts include Uchenna Uzo, Professor of Marketing at Lagos Business School; Idy Enang, NIMN President; Matt Hammond Regional Director Geopoll WA; Opeyemi Filani, General Manager, Showmax.
Ronan Redmond, Director & Chief Revenue Officer, of TVC Communication; and Titilope Akanmu, a Consumer Insights Professional with Dr. Olalekan Fadolapo, the Director-General of ARCON as keynote speaker had an insightful discourse that resulted in predicting 10 top trends to watch for in 2024 for the media, consumer, and markets insights the industry. These trends include:
1. Evolution of Conscious Commerce Amongst Consumers
Brands that transparently communicate their commitments to prioritize sustainability, ethical production, and social responsibility are likely to see increased loyalty and patronage from a more informed and conscientious customer base.
2. Retailers as Major Influencers for Generating Sales
Retailers are increasingly leveraging their platforms to influence consumer purchasing decisions directly. This trend underscores the importance of omnichannel strategies that integrate online and offline experiences, enabling retailers to engage with consumers more personally and effectively drive sales.
3. AI will transform the way digital marketing and creative advertising is done in Nigeria
AI will enhance the relevance and efficiency of marketing campaigns but also pave the way for innovative advertising formats that resonate with the Nigerian audience.
4. Active Involvement in Health and Wellness
The increasing focus on health and holistic well-being will cause brands that can effectively tap into this and offer genuine value and quality will stand to gain a competitive edge.
5. Nano Influencer Marketing
The rise of nano influencers marks a shift towards more authentic, relatable marketing. This trend suggests that the impact of influencer marketing is not solely dependent on follower count but on the quality of engagement and community trust.
6. Competitive Pricing of Made-in-Nigeria Products
With the growing emphasis on locally produced goods in Nigeria fuelled by improvements in local manufacturing capabilities, government incentives and changing preferences, consumers will become more inclined towards patronage of local brands (Made-In-Naija Goods) at competitive price levels and there will be a focus on messaging that ties brands to the raw materials behind them, especially if these materials are sourced in Nigeria.
7. Ad Investments and Media Inflation
This trend necessitates a strategic approach to media buying and planning, with a focus on maximizing return on investment through data-driven targeting and optimization of ad spending across platforms.
8. The Rise of Cocooning
Cocooning, the trend towards creating a comfortable, safe, and entertainment-filled home environment, has gained traction. Brands that can cater to the cocooning lifestyle through innovative, home-centric solutions will resonate with consumers seeking solace and convenience.
9. Increased Penetration of New Media Formats
The increase of new media formats that offer immersive and interactive experiences, bridging the gap between advertisement and direct purchase underscores the importance of integrating innovative advertising solutions to capture consumer attention in an increasingly fragmented media environment.
10. Sustainability in Action Beyond Rhetoric
The growing call for sustainability in action represents a critical juncture for brands. Consumers are increasingly holding companies accountable for their environmental and social impact, seeking transparency and tangible progress toward sustainability goals. Brands that can demonstrate real commitment and progress in their sustainability initiatives are likely to build stronger, trust-based relationships with their consumers.
PWC ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORT
A leading professional services firm, PwC Nigeria, after an in-depth analysis of the Nigerian economy, also released its latest Nigeria Economic Outlook, highlighting the seven key trends that will shape the nation’s economic trajectory in 2024.
PwC’s report projects a marginal decline in inflation and a 3.1% rise in GDP and notes that achieving sustainable growth in 2024 requires balancing ambitious fiscal reforms with effective budget implementation. It also stresses the importance of aligning fiscal and monetary policy to stabilise prices and reach target goals.
In its latest Nigeria Economic Outlook report, the firm outlined the following
1. Executing fiscal reforms: balancing ambition with budgetary implementation
Nigeria’s ambitious revenue targets for 2024 depend heavily on oil prices and reform implementation. The proposed fiscal reforms have the potential to boost non-oil revenue and shape the economy, but success hinges on effective budgeting and execution.
2. Evolving monetary policy stance: finding the right framework and instruments to achieve price stability
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has deployed several monetary policy tools and instruments to achieve price stability. Despite the deployment of monetary policy tools, the inflationary pressure has persisted. To succeed, CBN must independently pursue inflation goals, emphasising inflation control, and maintaining a stable financial system.
3. Investors will be cautiously optimistic
Foreign portfolio investment flows to the capital market may remain cautious due to residual challenges.
4. Undulating pathways to unlocking productivity in the economy
Limited fiscal space for public investment and difficulty attracting private investments constrain the ability to make essential infrastructure improvements.
5. Persisting vulnerability to external pressures with the potential of ‘shocks’
Geopolitical, economic, environmental, political, and trade trends will shape the dynamics and outlook for the Nigerian economy in 2024. If the Russia-Ukraine war intensifies, it could lead to increased global energy and commodity supply risks.
The outcome of elections in several countries globally, especially the USA, UK, and Taiwan may shape the dynamics of trade and capital flows around the world in 2024.
6. Consumers may likely adjust better to the evolving policy and macro realities
Consumer spending may be pressured in 2024 due to rising prices of goods and services (increasing food and transportation costs). However, private consumption is expected to be marginally better than in 2023. Poverty levels are projected to increase to 38.8% in 2024.
7. Expect Improved sectoral development riding on reforms
GDP may grow marginally by 3.1% in 2024 on the back of sustained policy reforms. The growth projection is driven by ongoing reforms, recovering oil production, and a proactive policy environment.
World Bank’s Latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU)-
The Nigeria Development Update (NDU) is a biannual World Bank report series. The NDU assesses recent economic and social developments and prospects in Nigeria and places these in a longer-term and global context.
It also provides an in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues and an analysis of Nigeria’s medium-term development challenges, intending for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Nigeria’s evolving economy. For 2024, NDU predicted the following
1. Poverty will Slowly and marginally fade away
The World Bank commenting on the economic outlook in 2024 in Nigeria said the recent reforms are expected to undo the increase in poverty seen in recent years from 2024 onward, though only marginally and slowly.
2. Inflation Will Gradually Fade With Strong Monetary Policy
It further said that inflation will gradually decline in 2024 and beyond if monetary policy tightening is accelerated. The reform of the petrol subsidy increased some prices, mainly for petrol purchases for vehicles and generators, as well as transport-related costs.
3. With time, Depreciation Of The Naira Will Ease Inflation Pressures
It however concluded that while the depreciation of the naira contributes to short-run inflation, over time a more transparent, market-reflective, and flexible exchange rate, underpinned by monetary policy tightening, is also likely to be more stable, thereby easing the inflation pressures.
AFRINVEST LIMITED ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The investment management holding company, Afrinvest is active in areas such as investment banking, and securities trading, unveiled the 2023 Nigerian Banking Sector Report, with the theme ‘Getting Nigeria to Work Again!’ in an event held in November in Lagos.
The event attracted dignitaries from the private and public sectors, market leaders, and stakeholders in the financial sector, who discussed key issues necessary to get the country’s economy back on a path of growth.
Expect Robust Liquidity Dynamics
Predicting the 2024 business outlook, the company also stated that the 2024 economic outlook is cautiously optimistic and predicated on robust liquidity dynamics and positive inflation, and a stable interest rate, and expectations.
The firm explained that based on their scenario models, GDP growth, inflation, and FX rate would average 3.0 percent, 22.1 percent, and N918.89/$1 in the 2024 blue-sky case, while the average outcomes could deteriorate to -1.5 percent, 24.7 percent and N1.057.19/$1 should policy fatigue and external risks mount.
It further stated that it anticipates that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) might adopt a restrictive stance to counter large inflows in the first half of the year. This could be the major upside trigger for yields. However, we see pathways for narrowing yields into the second half, with dovish pivots by moderating inflation, and a less restrictive CBN stance as potential factors to weigh on the economy.
FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES COMPANY LIMITED
Financial analysts at Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC), led by economist Bismarck Rewane after an internal research and analysis of the economy also gave their views on the economic outlook for 2024 in Nigeria.
Expect Slight Growth And Slower Pace Of Inflation
The company said that Nigeria’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.3 percent, up from an estimated growth rate of 2.61 percent in 2023 underpinned by a reduced pace of inflation, improved foreign exchange supply, Dangote Refinery, and improved investment.
It further stated that the country’s business environment will improve as the policy direction becomes clear and inflation will increase at a slower pace in 2024 due to the reduced pace of currency depreciation, monetary policy tightening, CBN moves to reduce deficit financing, and ease in global commodity prices.
VETIVA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED RESEARCH
The company shared its 2024 business predictions at the 2023 African Economic and Capital Markets Conference themed ‘From geopolitics to geo-economics: Navigating uncertainties across Africa’ a virtual event organized by the company in November 2023.
At the virtual conference, the Head of Research, at Vetiva Capital, Luke Ofojebe, did a review of the capital markets in the West African sub-region.
2024: A Delicate Dance Between Opportunities And Challenges
The company revealed that the 2024 economy for Nigeria promises a delicate dance between opportunities and challenges. Growth expectations remain hinged on oil production, with the potential for increased refining activities acting as a potential catalyst.
However, the removal of fuel subsidies and its inflationary impact, coupled with a continued tightening of monetary policy, pose significant risks.
SBM INTELLIGENCE
1. Planned Recapitalisation Will Reduce The Number Of Banks
On its part, SBM Intelligence in its internal research and analytic periodic report on the Nigerian economic situation for 2024, opined that CBN will not be able to accomplish its goal of achieving 95 percent financial inclusions next year. As it proceeds with its recapitalization of banks, the commercial bank count will fall below 20, down from the current count of 24.
2. More Foreign Firms Will Close Shop
It stated that more foreign firms with manufacturing plants in Nigeria will close their shops and transit to importation and trading due to pressure occasioned by forex unavailability.
3. Unemployment, Civil Unrest Will Increase
SBM further stated that the unemployment rate will rise as companies struggle to stay afloat in a challenging economic environment. Organized civil unrest by the Nigerian Labour Congress and other groups will dominate the scene in 2024 as various groups will galvanize the populace against government excesses.
PRESIDENT OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMIC SOCIETY
Some economic experts were also not left out in the prediction of the business outcome in Nigeria.
Global Inflation Will Help Nigeria’s Economy
Giving his prediction for the 2024 business outlook, Adeola Adenikinju, a professor of economics and president of the Nigerian Economic Society said, “This year should be better than 2023, but it won’t be the total transformation of the economy or major reduction like in 2023.”
“If inflation continues to trend downwards globally, then it will be good for the economy because it will reduce the extent to which imported inflation will affect local prices”, he added.
“I think the central bank will be able to have a better grip on inflation in 2024 and the exchange rate. And if that happens, it will have a positive impact on domestic economic activities,” he concluded.
