The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for Nigeria’s economy this year to 4.3 per cent, attributing this to steadier economic conditions and returning investor confidence which it claims are helping the country’s recovery.
The upgrade was contained in the bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, released recently. The report also expects growth to climb up to 4.4 per cent a year in 2027 and 2028, from an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2025.
According to the bank, the improvement is being driven by better macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a slow pickup in private investment. It said Nigeria is one of the African countries whose forecasts were revised upward, along with Zambia, Ethiopia and Angola, as years of reforms and better economic management begin to show results.
The new projection follows data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showing that Nigeria’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026.
For sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, the World Bank lifted its 2026 forecast to 4.3 per cent, up from 4.1 per cent projected in April. Andrew Dabalen, the bank’s chief economist for Africa, said the region has held up well despite a tough global climate, including higher energy prices linked to the war involving Iran.
Despite this upgrade, the bank cautioned that ordinary people may not feel the gains soon. It said faster growth is not yet translating into enough poverty reduction across the region, because income per person is rising more slowly than the economy. In Nigeria, it said growth is still too weak to create enough productive jobs, while high fuel prices tied to the Middle East conflict continue to hit low-income households hardest.
To turn stability into better living standards, the bank said Nigeria needs sustained reforms, more private investment, better infrastructure, stronger skills and higher productivity. It also urged African governments to use artificial intelligence and digital tools to boost productivity and create jobs, while closing gaps in infrastructure and skills.
